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Monday, December 9, 2013

UFC on FOX 9 Full Preview and Predictions




One of the most stacked cards of the year kicks off Saturday night from the SleepTrain Arena in Sacramento, California: UFC on Fox 9. The main card features a title fight rematch between Demetrious "Mighty Mouse Johnson and Joseph Benavidez, a highly anticipated bout between two bantamweight superstars in Urijah Faber and Michael McDonald, A featherweight matchup featuring Chad Mendes and Nik Lentz, and two lightweight fighters with their back against the wall in Joe Lauzon vs Mac Danzig. The full event card is as follows:

  • Demetrious Johnson(c) vs Joseph Benavidez
  • Urijah Faber vs Michael McDonald
  • Chad Mendes vs Nik Lentz
  • Joe Lauzon vs Mac Danzig
  • Court McGee vs Ryan LaFlare
  • Danny Castillo vs Edson Barboza
  • Bobby Green vs Pat Healy
  • Scott Jorgenson vs Zach Makovsky
  • Abek Trujillo vs Roger Bowling
  • Cody McKenzie vs Sam Stout
  • Darren Uyenoyama vs Alptekin Ozkilic


INJURY BREAKDOWN

This card has been hit with the injury bug big time. The card was first supposed to feature a lightweight title bout between Anthony Pettis and TJ Grant, however Grant told the UFC in late October that he was still facing the concussion symptoms that had forced him out of a bout with then-champion Benson Henderson at UFC 164 in August and would not be able to fight. Former Strikeforce champion Josh Thomson stepped in to face Pettis on the card, but Pettis was subsequently forced off the card with a knee injury(and later forced to have surgery on his knee) and the fight was scrapped. Demetrious Johnson vs Joseph Benavidez II was moved from the TUF 18 finale card to this event.

Ian McCall was originally scheduled to fight flyweight newcomer Scott Jorgenson on this event, but McCall was forced off the card with a hand injury and replaced by former title challenger John Dodson. Dodson was revealed last week to have suffered a knee injury and was forced out of the bout, replaced by former RFA flyweight champion Zach Makovsky.

Jamie Varner was expected to face Pat Healy at this event but suffered an injury and was replaced by Bobby Green. Kelvin Gastelum was expected to face Court McGee in a welterweight bout but suffered a knee injury and was replaced by Ryan LaFlare. Former title challenger John Moraga was expected to face Darren Uyenoyama but also suffered an injury and was replaced by newcomer Alptekin Ozkilic.

Finally, a highly-anticipated bout between former interim welterweight champion Carlos Condit and surging striker Matt Brown was expected to take place here, but Brown herniated two discs in his lower back and was forced off the card. Carlos Condit was also pulled off this card and is expected to fight at UFC 170 against an unnamed opponent.

PREDICTIONS

JOHNSON VS BENAVIDEZ II


A rematch of a previous fight for the inaugural UFC Flyweight Championship, Johnson won the previous fight via back-and-forth split decision in a classic fight. Since then, Johnson has defended his title against John Dodson via unanimous decision and John Moraga via round 5 armbar. Since his loss to "Mighty Mouse", Benavidez has rattled off three impressive wins: a unanimous decision victory of Ian McCall, a round 2 knockout of Darren Uyenoyama, and most recently a TKO victory over Jussier Formiga back in September.

I think this fight will be different from the last, Benavidez has improved massively on the feet(arguably due to Duane Ludwig's role in Team Alpha Male) and his quickness will be too much for Mighty Mouse. I don't think he will knock out Johnson, but he will win the fight.

PICK: Benavidez via decision

URIJAH FABER VS MICHAEL MCDONALD


This is a highly anticipated fight that materialized after UFC Fight Night 26 in Boston where Michael McDonald impressively submitted Brad Pickett and Urijah Faber defeated Iuri Alcantara via decision.

This fight is incredibly hard for me to pick. I think both guys have major advantages in certain areas, McDonald on the feet and Faber on the ground. Faber's grappling is incredible, the way he transitions from side to side and gets those chokes is crazy. However, no bantamweight hits harder than McDonald. The real story of this fight is a potential changing of the guard. If Faber can keep this on the ground it'll be a bad night for McDonald but I don't see that happening.

PREDICTION: McDonald via round 3 TKO

CHAD MENDES VS NIK LENTZ


Lentz is an interesting test for Mendes. he's a real tough guy who gets in your face. However, with Chad Mendes probably being just one win away from a title fight, Mendes 2.0 will be in full force Saturday night.

PICK: Mendes via round 1 TKO

JOE LAUZON VS MAC DANZIG

Joe Lauzon is the definition of a hot and cold fighter. After a huge win in an amazing fight with Jamie Varner, Lauzon has lost two straight, a Fight of the Night performance against Jim Miller and a real stinker against Michael Johnson. Lauzon has never lost three in a row and I expect him to come up big against a guy who really shouldn't even be in the UFC in Mac Danzig.

PREDICTION: Lauzon via round 2 submission

UNDERCARD PREDICTIONS

Court McGee def. Ryan LaFlare via decision
Edson Barboza def. Danny Castillo via decision
Bobby Green def. Pat Healy via round 3 TKO
Scott Jorgenson def. Zach Makovsky via decision
Abel Trujillo def. Roger Bowling via round 3 TKO
Cody McKenzie def. Sam Stout via round 2 submission
Darren Uyenoyama def. Alptekin Ozkilic via decision

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