INJURY BREAKDOWN
Of course the most prevalent story/injury on this card was that Dominick Cruz, the bantamweight champion who had been our for two years after double reconstructive surgery on his ACL, was scheduled to fight interim champion Renan Barao to determine the true champion. Cruz, however, tore his groin and was forced out of the bout. He was replaced by Urijah Faber, who previously fought Barao to determine the interim champion at UFC 149.
Abel Trujillo was expected to face Bobby Green at this event but was forced out with an injury and was replaced by Jamie Varner.
PREDICTIONS
RENAN BARAO(31-1) VS URIJAH FABER(30-6)
Current betting line: Barao(-325) Faber(+250)
It seems like after the last fight we questioned whether or not Faber would ever get another title shot, yet here he is after rattling off four dominant wins over Ivan Menjivar, Scott Jorgensen, Iuri Alcantara, and Michael McDonald.
Faber has a serious problem with taking a ton of damage to his lead leg. Aldo completely destroyed Faber's leg with kicks and Barao didn't do much less. Faber will want to get on the inside, but the problem is that Barao is a majorly defensive fighter and controls the distance extremely well. If Faber can't get inside, stands in the pocket and takes a heavy volume of leg kicks, it could be a short night.
Going back to Barao's defensive style, his defensive wrestling is excellent. Faber is great on the mat, but it won't do much help if he can't get there. And, again, if Faber has trouble getting on the inside, matwork won't do much help.
The X-factor for this one is Faber's speed. Barao has a bit of a plodding style, and if Faber can utilize his speed to frustrate Barao, get on the inside, shoot for takedowns, he could take this.
In the end, I think Barao is a bit more complete fighter. He has a great way of keeping opponents on the outside and that's why he's been so successful. Faber definitely has a shot, especially if he comes in looking like he did against Michael McDonald, but I think Barao takes this one to retain the belt, and I think it'll happen by TKO.
PREDICTION: Barao via 3rd round TKO
JOSE ALDO(23-1) VS RICARDO LAMAS(13-2)
Current betting line: Aldo(-570) Lamas(+430)
Ricardo Lamas has been on fire since dropping down to Featherweight. In this fight, however, he's going to have a very tough time. I want to pick him so bad but it's just a terrible matchup. Aldo will light him up on the feet with punches and kicks, so Lamas is going to want to put him on his back.
Putting Aldo on his back is going to be near-impossible, however, because Aldo has such an uncanny ability to push opponents back constantly. If you look at the Zombie fight, even when Aldo was shooting for takedowns because of his inability to throw kicks he was still pushing Jung back against the fence.
Lamas is an excellent counter-puncher and likes to keep the pace with his jab. He needs to throw caution to the wind here. Anyone who fights a cautious fight against Jose Aldo is going to get demolished, plain and simple. The reason for that is Aldo is so good at keeping up the pressure.
The X-factor in this fight is going to be Lamas's ability to swarm his opponent when they're in danger. We saw in the Koch fight that Lamas performs so well when he smells blood in the water. If Lamas can catch Aldo with a big punch, maybe knock him down, it could be lights out for Jose Aldo.
PREDICTION: Jose Aldo via 2nd round TKO
ALISTAIR OVEREEM(36-13) VS FRANK MIR(16-8)
Current betting line: Alistair Overeem(-325) Frank Mir(+250)
The loser of this fight could easily be getting their walking papers, but I honestly think these two are at entirely different points in their careers. Overeem is just on the bad side of a few losses, but Mir is on his way out of MMA entirely. Immediately that bodes well for Overeem.
The outcome of this fight comes down to the first few minutes of the first round in my mind. If Frank Mir can weather an early storm by Overeem, he could take it to the ground and submit Overeem. But I think Overeem is gonna come out swinging. He knows Mir has a suspect chin and was downed by knees against Josh Barnett.
Can the X-factor in this fight be anything but Overeem's motivation/attitude? We've seen Overeem get cocky in his last two fights and get knocked out in both of them, and obviously Frank Mir has a chance to do the same.
PREDICTION: Alistair Overeem via 1st round KO
JOHN LINEKER(23-6) VS ALI BAGAUTINOV(12-2)
Current betting line: Ali Bagautinov(-135) John Lineker(+105)
I love this fight so much. Two flyweights with huge power is sure to provide fireworks. I'm also a big fan of Bagautinov, and think he poses and interesting threat to most flyweights in the division.
Despite his love for punching, Bagautinov can't rely on it too much and get into a boxing match with Lineker, because he'll have a really tough time. People often forget that Bagautinov is a world-class grappler and that's a huge advantage for him. Lineker has been submitted in three of his six losses, notably to Louis Gaudinot and Felipe Arantes.
If Bagautinov can take this fight to the ground it can be the difference maker. He'll be able to keep himself out of Lineker's huge power and be able to submit him.
The X-factor here is Lineker's ability to make weight. If Lineker misses weight again, he'll probably come into the fight a bit demotivated, considering he'll probably get cut if he misses weight again or be forced to move up to 135.
PREDICTION: Bagautinov via third round submission
ABEL TRUJILLO(11-5) VS JAMIE VARNER(21-8-1)
Current betting line: Abel Trujillo(+125) Jamie Varner(-155)
Tough fight to pick. Varner should look to Khabib Nurmagomedov's strategy and use his wrestling to wear down Trujillo, but we've seen in the past that Varner would much rather go for broke and look to knock someone out or submit them.
You wouldn't know it if you looked at his fight with Nurmagomedov, but Trujillo loves to take the fight to the mat and submit people, something Varner has been susceptible to.
The X-factor here is Trujillo's defensive wrestling. If he takes control of the wrestling it could be a short night for Varner, but I don't think it will go that way. I still like Trujillo to take it, but it'll probably be a snoozefest.
PREDICTION: Trujillo via unanimous decision
UNDERCARD PREDICTIONS
John Makdessi def. Alan Patrick
Chris Cariaso def. Danny Martinez
Nick Catone def. Tom Watson
Al Iaquinta def. Kevin Lee
Clint Hester def. Andy Enz
Rashid Magomedov def. Tony Martin
Neil Magny def. Gasan Umalatov
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