It's that time again folks: time for my preview and predictions of UFC on Fox 10. My current record for main card predictions through 3 events is 12-3. Headlined by a key matchup in the 155-pound division, former champion Benson "Smooth" Henderson takes on gritty veteran Josh "The Punk" Thomson. Henderson lost his title back at UFC 164 in August to Anthony Pettis after defending the belt 3 times against Frankie Edgar, Nate Diaz, and Gilbert Melendez. Pettis was the supposed to take on Thomson at UFC on Fox 9, but Pettis pulled out of the fight requiring knee surgery, so this matchup between "Smooth" and "The Punk" was set up. Who knows what this fight will lead to, as Pettis is still injured, we have TJ Grant(who was promised a title shot way back in May before suffering a concussion, which he has still not been cleared to come back from), no one seems to want to fight Russian wrestler Khabib Nurmagomedov, and our ole favorite Nate Diaz seems to want to sit around waiting for a title shot. Needless to say, the lightweight division is definitely interesting.
In the co-main event, rising heavyweight Stipe Miocic, who's coming off a huge win over fan favorite Roy Nelson, takes on Brazilian veteran Gabriel Gonzaga. Gonzaga has won two straight, a 17-second knockout of Dave Herman at UFC 162 and another quick knockout of Shawn Jordan at UFC 166. Also on this card is a strangely-booked lightweight bout between Donald "Cowboy" Cerrone and Adriano Martins, and a featherweight bout between Darren "The Damage" Elkins and Jeremy "Lil Heathen" Stephens.
INJURY BREAKDOWN
Jared Rosholt was expected to face Oleksiy Oliynyk at this event, but Oliynyk was injured and Rosholt was pulled from the card.
A bout between Adam Khaliev and Pascal Krauss was expected to take place here, but both men were injured and forced off the card.
PREDICTIONS
BENSON HENDERSON VS JOSH THOMSON
Both of these men are BJJ black belts. Both of them have excellent stats in the wrestling department. Both of them have experience going 25 minutes. This is definitely going to be a tightly contested matchup. My only concern is whether or not Thomson can handle the volume of strikes that Henderson will throw at him. Thomson did fight Gilbert Melendez three times and in their third fight he took a staggering 132 total strikes(77 of them significant). So I believe he'll be able to hang with Henderson's striking capacity. Thus, this fight is about split down the middle.
However, Henderson has shown in the past the he has the uncanny ability to do just enough to take home a decision, especially in the second Edgar fight and in the Melendez fight. And I think he'll do it again Saturday, based solely on the absence of intangibles that push the fight in either direction.
PREDICTION: Henderson via unanimous decision
STIPE MIOCIC VS GABRIEL GONZAGA
Gabriel Gonzaga obviously has the capacity to knock anyone out. And he is very decorated with his jiu jitsu. But Stipe Miocic is such a talented wrestler that it'll be tough for Gonzaga to do anything on the mat. Miocic is also significantly younger, has a better gas tank, and isn't known for his capacity to get knocked out.
PREDICTION: Miocic via unanimous decision
DONALD CERRONE VS ADRIANO MARTINS
Am I the only one who thinks this is a very strange matchup? Cerrone, a perennial top-ten guy, against a relative unknown in Martins. Martins may have an extensive record, but it's mostly against nobodies in Brazil. And he only has two wins in any major promotions, one against Jorge Gurgel in Strikeforce and most recently to Daron Cruikshank at UFC Fight Night 32 back in November. Despite this, Cerrone is much more experienced and a way better striker. I don't see any way Cerrone doesn't win this fight.
PREDICTION: Cerrone via 2nd round (T)KO
DARREN ELKINS VS JEREMY STEPHENS
Interesting fight. This is a typical grappler vs striker matchup. It's simple: if Elkins wants to erase his KO loss to Chad Mendes and all the criticism about his chin that came with it, he needs to use his wrestling to stop Stephens from landing that big KO punch. However, if he's going to be wrestling at all he needs to be willing to take shots in the clinch and on the outside. He can't stand and trade with Stephens or it will end bad. Stephens is no slouch on the ground, though, with a black belt in jiu-jitsu, "Lil Heathen" could surprise us with his overall game. Still, based on Stephens's inconsistency, I like Elkins to weather the storm and take home a decision
PREDICTION: Elkins via split decision
UNDERCARD PREDICTIONS
Sergio Pettis def. Alex Caceres
Eddie Wineland def. Yves Jabouin
Chico Camus def. Yaotzin Meza
Hugo Viana def. Junior Hernandez
Daron Cruikshank def. Mike Rio
Mike Rhodes def. George Sullivan
Walt Harris def. Nikita Krylov
No comments:
Post a Comment